July has become a month of unexpected plebiscites. First there’s the mind-boggling: the UK’s ruling Conservative party will allow a vote of confidence in itself on Monday. This “sideshow” as the FT’s parliamentary team dubbed it last week, which is certain to be won by the ruling party, is best seen as an effort to instill unity among Tory MPs after the Prime Minister’s tumultuous implosion Boris Johnson.
Which brings us to “Super Monday”, plenty of showdowns and another vote to further whittle down the field of Tory MP candidates seeking to be the new leader – and therefore prime minister – after televised debates on ‘this weekend. You can keep track of events via this FT page.
Once they reach the final pairing, due on Wednesday before the summer parliamentary recess, the party’s national members will get the final vote, allowing a new leader to be in place on September 5. Get ready for a summer of happy delivery and media appearances, and no doubt some leaks and stories of disrepute, from the two rival camps in what has already been a very competitive contest.
In Sri Lanka, parliamentarians will elect a new president on Wednesday to replace Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country after protesters stormed his palace before resigning last week. Whether this will quell anger over food shortages and rampant inflation remains to be seen.
Draupadi Murmu enjoys the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party © AFP via Getty Images
There is an election that was expected this week. India’s parliament will decide the country’s new president. The winner, to be announced on Wednesday, is expected to be veteran politician Draupadi Murmu as she enjoys the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. But maybe this will be another unexpected election story.
Back in the UK, and returning to the usual diary of July events, Nadhim Zahawi will address city dignitaries with the Chancellor’s annual Mansion House speech. Zahawi has only been chancellor for less than two weeks and may not be in the role for long once his new party leader is decided, but he is expected to grab the headlines by introducing a loosening of municipal regulations to facilitate and accelerate the collection of companies. money to the square mile.
Speaking of expected things, the British summer of discontent hangs in the air like the country’s sweltering temperatures. Lawyers, postmasters and brewery workers are planning walkouts this week.
Finally, there will be the return of an event that hasn’t happened ‘in person’ since the 2020 pandemic closures: the Farnborough Airshow. Unusually for an international gathering of aerospace executives, organizers decided to announce the return of the event on the side of a bus. Hopefully, that doesn’t mean aerial displays will be as British of transport solutions, the replacement bus service.
Economic data
The two and —inflation and interest rates— will once again be in the public eye, with attention focused on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy committee meeting.
The week will end with another scenario of international comparators with reports of purchasing managers’ index data.
companies
We’re in the middle of earnings season with the rest of the big US banking pack reporting, plus a wide variety of tech, media, automotive and healthcare companies.
Also, on Monday, share Haleon they are set to go public on the London Stock Exchange, completing the spin-off of GSK’s consumer health businesses, with the parent company’s blessing. Haleon, whose brands will include Sensodyne toothpaste and painkillers Advil and Panadol, is expected to seek a valuation of up to £45bn.
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