Debate continues over whether the US is in recession, but Goldman Sachs’ top energy analyst says one key indicator is showing no warning signs: commodity markets. Jeff Currie, the firm’s global head of commodities research, said demand for commodities remains strong, suggesting the US is not in recession. “If you look at global demand for commodities (oil and metals combined), the recession was in April and May when China went through severe lockdowns,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “The big demand picture: It’s still growing.” Currie noted that while there is a slowdown, demand is not contracting. That “key point,” as he called it, is being lost in the larger narrative, which has become about lost demand and falling oil prices. “The reality is that the underlying picture is of slower demand growth after a very torrid pace earlier this year and not an outright contraction,” he said. Ultimately, physical and financial markets tell different stories. But the fundamentals point to a still tight market. Currie noted that even if the economy is tipping into a recession, it is likely to be broad-based and shallow. This is very different from conditions in 2020, when global lockdowns sapped demand for oil and petroleum products. Oil prices have fallen from their recent highs in March, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crude to its highest level since 2008. West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, falling 4.8% on Monday to trade at $93.88 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude settled at $100.26 a barrel, down 3.6%. Both benchmarks traded above $130 in March. Currie believes oil will recover to that level. Demand continues to grow as economies around the world continue to emerge from the pandemic. “The upside over the next three to six months is substantial,” he said, reiterating his year-end target of $130 for Brent. “Physically the market is still in deficit. Lower prices will stimulate more demand,” he said. Currie believes demand could increase by an additional million barrels per day. And that doesn’t take into account the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will stop in October. “In energy, we would argue that the upside potential to hit new highs in the second half of this year is still very, very high,” Currie said.
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